How to Prepare for a Post-IDFA World as a Marketer on iOS 14

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7

Shamanth Rao (Founder at RocketShip HQ - Mobile UA Agency) discusses with Eric Seufert (Strategy Consultant at Heracles Media), Thomas Petit (Mobile Growth Consultant) and Nebojsa Radovic (Growth Lead at N3twork) about how to prepare for iOS 14.

Source:
How to Prepare for a Post-IDFA World as a Marketer on iOS 14
(no direct link to watch/listen)
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Type:
Panel
Publication date:
August 26, 2020
Added to the Vault on:
August 6, 2020
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💎 #
1

In the context of aggressive enforcement by Apple and the fact that it's not just symbolic: what is more realistic is a switch to people doing measurement in a probabilistic way.

03:38
💎 #
2

Publishers have a lot of player profiles but impact of having this will be diminished. So publishers with a good understanding of technical UA and incrementality will be more valuable, the ones that are able to find players without VO/AEO.

10:53
💎 #
3

DSPs will exist but without the ability to filter out specific IDFAs the cost is more likely going to go up which will make DSPs less competitive.

12:08
💎 #
4

Will publishers be ready to pay for impressions to players without knowing how valuable they are? This will impact impression-level bidding and impression-level revenue reporting. Which means games might move to more IAP for ad-driven games.

12:35
💎 #
5

Targeting is the product for Facebook. If you get rid of the targeting, just going for generic/broad level of aggregated revenue won't work. The distribution of spend from users is long tail. If you can't target users individually then if efficiency drops by 20%, even with costs dropping by 20% you might not be able to spend anything because you are no longer able to target high monetizers.

16:29
💎 #
6

Subscription apps have a slight advantage. A lot of subscriptions happen in the first days which will make it easier on reporting. There is also less variance between revenue from different players. However it pushes everyone to be more aggressive with paywalls and that's probably why Apple will iterate a bit on SKAdNetwork and give the ability to receive different events for different periods of time.

23:53
💎 #
7

Nenadask the IDFA of payers. That way you can share the IDFAs of high-value players with platforms. bo thinks opt-in rates can be higher, especially because you are going to be able to ask for permission later

28:40
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💎 #
1

In the context of aggressive enforcement by Apple and the fact that it's not just symbolic: what is more realistic is a switch to people doing measurement in a probabilistic way.

03:38
💎 #
2

Publishers have a lot of player profiles but impact of having this will be diminished. So publishers with a good understanding of technical UA and incrementality will be more valuable, the ones that are able to find players without VO/AEO.

10:53
💎 #
3

DSPs will exist but without the ability to filter out specific IDFAs the cost is more likely going to go up which will make DSPs less competitive.

12:08
💎 #
4

Will publishers be ready to pay for impressions to players without knowing how valuable they are? This will impact impression-level bidding and impression-level revenue reporting. Which means games might move to more IAP for ad-driven games.

12:35
💎 #
5

Targeting is the product for Facebook. If you get rid of the targeting, just going for generic/broad level of aggregated revenue won't work. The distribution of spend from users is long tail. If you can't target users individually then if efficiency drops by 20%, even with costs dropping by 20% you might not be able to spend anything because you are no longer able to target high monetizers.

16:29
💎 #
6

Subscription apps have a slight advantage. A lot of subscriptions happen in the first days which will make it easier on reporting. There is also less variance between revenue from different players. However it pushes everyone to be more aggressive with paywalls and that's probably why Apple will iterate a bit on SKAdNetwork and give the ability to receive different events for different periods of time.

23:53
💎 #
7

Nenadask the IDFA of payers. That way you can share the IDFAs of high-value players with platforms. bo thinks opt-in rates can be higher, especially because you are going to be able to ask for permission later

28:40
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💎 #
1

In the context of aggressive enforcement by Apple and the fact that it's not just symbolic: what is more realistic is a switch to people doing measurement in a probabilistic way.

03:38
💎 #
2

Publishers have a lot of player profiles but impact of having this will be diminished. So publishers with a good understanding of technical UA and incrementality will be more valuable, the ones that are able to find players without VO/AEO.

10:53
💎 #
3

DSPs will exist but without the ability to filter out specific IDFAs the cost is more likely going to go up which will make DSPs less competitive.

12:08
💎 #
4

Will publishers be ready to pay for impressions to players without knowing how valuable they are? This will impact impression-level bidding and impression-level revenue reporting. Which means games might move to more IAP for ad-driven games.

12:35
💎 #
5

Targeting is the product for Facebook. If you get rid of the targeting, just going for generic/broad level of aggregated revenue won't work. The distribution of spend from users is long tail. If you can't target users individually then if efficiency drops by 20%, even with costs dropping by 20% you might not be able to spend anything because you are no longer able to target high monetizers.

16:29
💎 #
6

Subscription apps have a slight advantage. A lot of subscriptions happen in the first days which will make it easier on reporting. There is also less variance between revenue from different players. However it pushes everyone to be more aggressive with paywalls and that's probably why Apple will iterate a bit on SKAdNetwork and give the ability to receive different events for different periods of time.

23:53
💎 #
7

Nenadask the IDFA of payers. That way you can share the IDFAs of high-value players with platforms. bo thinks opt-in rates can be higher, especially because you are going to be able to ask for permission later

28:40
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What's realistic and what will not work?

Eric

[💎 @03:38] In the context of aggressive enforcement by Apple and the fact that it's not just symbolic: what is more realistic is a switch to people doing measurement in a probabilistic way.

Some tools will build solutions that are then forbidden by Apple for several months. As an advertiser however you want to build something only once and something that stands the test of time.

Deterministic has been an illusion for a long time anyway and there was momentum in this direction.


Thomas

Workarounds are not going to be around forever. However timing is very short to get prepared. Loopholes are not going to stick.

It might be good because there are already discrepancies. MMPs should embrace the fact that it's going to be more complex to approach attribution.

Short term it's a problem but long term it may be an opportunity.


Nebo

We need to come up with a scalable and sustainable solution.


Impact on small-scale developers and gaming

Nebo

[💎 @10:53] Publishers have a lot of player profiles but impact of having this will be diminished. So publishers with a good understanding of technical UA and incrementality will be more valuable, the ones that are able to find players without VO/AEO.

[💎 @12:08] DSPs will exist but without the ability to filter out specific IDFAs the cost is more likely going to go up which will make DSPs less competitive.

Impact on monetization?

[💎 @12:35] Will publishers be ready to pay for impressions to players without knowing how valuable they are? This will impact impression-level bidding and impression-level revenue reporting. Which means games might move to more IAP for ad-driven games.


Thomas

More IAP is one of the reasons for Apple's shift because their goal is to grow the service category and Apple is not making any money from ad impressions.


Will ad CPMs go down?

Thomas

We will see a temporary drop because some people will freak out and then people will adjust. Is it going to be enough to compensate the higher costs of acquisition?

We will find a new balance but it will take a little time.


Eric

Personalization of ad placements for AEO/VO is a huge part of FB's revenue.

[💎 @16:29] Targeting is the product for Facebook. If you get rid of the targeting, just going for generic/broad level of aggregated revenue won't work. The distribution of spend from users is long tail. If you can't target users individually then if efficiency drops by 20%, even with costs dropping by 20% you might not be able to spend anything because you are no longer able to target high monetizers.

It's already hard to scale even with sophisticated systems at the moment.

Opt-in rate expected: 20%. Eric took guidance on this from GDPR opt-ins have conformed to the specs, opt-in rates were around 10%. And in iOS 14's case, Apple is controlling the pop-up.

Some people think that only 10%-20% of app revenue comes from app installs and it won't hurt FB too much. But if 95% ad revenue comes from mobile, how come app advertising revenue is not at least half?


Advice for subscription apps

Thomas

Main advice is be ready. Act super fast as soon as you can (since we can not deploy anything right now). It's going to happen very quickly so put it on the roadmap.

IDFA has been dead for kids app since June 30. But this means that kid apps have to prepare and fast-forward the adaptation (without being able to use SKAdNetwork until iOS 14).

Shifting money to Android? That's not going to happen that much for now because iPhone users just spend so much more.

[💎 @23:53] Subscription apps have a slight advantage. A lot of subscriptions happen in the first days which will make it easier on reporting. There is also less variance between revenue from different players. However it pushes everyone to be more aggressive with paywalls and that's probably why Apple will iterate a bit on SKAdNetwork and give the ability to receive different events for different periods of time.

Trial often happen within the first hours. However optimizing for free trial for UA can bring people that systematically cancel (e.g. young audience).

A lot of people are going to add signup to the app and it's going to become even more common.


General advice

Nebo

Wait but know that this is coming and learn as much as you can.


[💎 @28:40] Nebo thinks opt-in rates can be higher, especially because you are going to be able to ask for permission later and ask the IDFA of payers. That way you can share the IDFAs of high-value players with platforms.

Be cautious when planning new products, and for investment companies keep a diversified portfolio. Social casino games might be more impacted.


Eric

Think about how monetization ties to events with SKAdNetwork. Try to get the highest value conversion event earlier on.

Convince your users that they can get value out of it, maybe incentivizing it.

Design is going to be even more integrated with UA strategy.


The notes from this resource are only available to premium members.
↘ At this point, you know what to do ↙
Upgrade Your Plan

What's realistic and what will not work?

Eric

[💎 @03:38] In the context of aggressive enforcement by Apple and the fact that it's not just symbolic: what is more realistic is a switch to people doing measurement in a probabilistic way.

Some tools will build solutions that are then forbidden by Apple for several months. As an advertiser however you want to build something only once and something that stands the test of time.

Deterministic has been an illusion for a long time anyway and there was momentum in this direction.


Thomas

Workarounds are not going to be around forever. However timing is very short to get prepared. Loopholes are not going to stick.

It might be good because there are already discrepancies. MMPs should embrace the fact that it's going to be more complex to approach attribution.

Short term it's a problem but long term it may be an opportunity.


Nebo

We need to come up with a scalable and sustainable solution.


Impact on small-scale developers and gaming

Nebo

[💎 @10:53] Publishers have a lot of player profiles but impact of having this will be diminished. So publishers with a good understanding of technical UA and incrementality will be more valuable, the ones that are able to find players without VO/AEO.

[💎 @12:08] DSPs will exist but without the ability to filter out specific IDFAs the cost is more likely going to go up which will make DSPs less competitive.

Impact on monetization?

[💎 @12:35] Will publishers be ready to pay for impressions to players without knowing how valuable they are? This will impact impression-level bidding and impression-level revenue reporting. Which means games might move to more IAP for ad-driven games.


Thomas

More IAP is one of the reasons for Apple's shift because their goal is to grow the service category and Apple is not making any money from ad impressions.


Will ad CPMs go down?

Thomas

We will see a temporary drop because some people will freak out and then people will adjust. Is it going to be enough to compensate the higher costs of acquisition?

We will find a new balance but it will take a little time.


Eric

Personalization of ad placements for AEO/VO is a huge part of FB's revenue.

[💎 @16:29] Targeting is the product for Facebook. If you get rid of the targeting, just going for generic/broad level of aggregated revenue won't work. The distribution of spend from users is long tail. If you can't target users individually then if efficiency drops by 20%, even with costs dropping by 20% you might not be able to spend anything because you are no longer able to target high monetizers.

It's already hard to scale even with sophisticated systems at the moment.

Opt-in rate expected: 20%. Eric took guidance on this from GDPR opt-ins have conformed to the specs, opt-in rates were around 10%. And in iOS 14's case, Apple is controlling the pop-up.

Some people think that only 10%-20% of app revenue comes from app installs and it won't hurt FB too much. But if 95% ad revenue comes from mobile, how come app advertising revenue is not at least half?


Advice for subscription apps

Thomas

Main advice is be ready. Act super fast as soon as you can (since we can not deploy anything right now). It's going to happen very quickly so put it on the roadmap.

IDFA has been dead for kids app since June 30. But this means that kid apps have to prepare and fast-forward the adaptation (without being able to use SKAdNetwork until iOS 14).

Shifting money to Android? That's not going to happen that much for now because iPhone users just spend so much more.

[💎 @23:53] Subscription apps have a slight advantage. A lot of subscriptions happen in the first days which will make it easier on reporting. There is also less variance between revenue from different players. However it pushes everyone to be more aggressive with paywalls and that's probably why Apple will iterate a bit on SKAdNetwork and give the ability to receive different events for different periods of time.

Trial often happen within the first hours. However optimizing for free trial for UA can bring people that systematically cancel (e.g. young audience).

A lot of people are going to add signup to the app and it's going to become even more common.


General advice

Nebo

Wait but know that this is coming and learn as much as you can.


[💎 @28:40] Nebo thinks opt-in rates can be higher, especially because you are going to be able to ask for permission later and ask the IDFA of payers. That way you can share the IDFAs of high-value players with platforms.

Be cautious when planning new products, and for investment companies keep a diversified portfolio. Social casino games might be more impacted.


Eric

Think about how monetization ties to events with SKAdNetwork. Try to get the highest value conversion event earlier on.

Convince your users that they can get value out of it, maybe incentivizing it.

Design is going to be even more integrated with UA strategy.


The notes from this resource are only available to premium members.

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↘ At this point, you know what to do ↙
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What's realistic and what will not work?

Eric

[💎 @03:38] In the context of aggressive enforcement by Apple and the fact that it's not just symbolic: what is more realistic is a switch to people doing measurement in a probabilistic way.

Some tools will build solutions that are then forbidden by Apple for several months. As an advertiser however you want to build something only once and something that stands the test of time.

Deterministic has been an illusion for a long time anyway and there was momentum in this direction.


Thomas

Workarounds are not going to be around forever. However timing is very short to get prepared. Loopholes are not going to stick.

It might be good because there are already discrepancies. MMPs should embrace the fact that it's going to be more complex to approach attribution.

Short term it's a problem but long term it may be an opportunity.


Nebo

We need to come up with a scalable and sustainable solution.


Impact on small-scale developers and gaming

Nebo

[💎 @10:53] Publishers have a lot of player profiles but impact of having this will be diminished. So publishers with a good understanding of technical UA and incrementality will be more valuable, the ones that are able to find players without VO/AEO.

[💎 @12:08] DSPs will exist but without the ability to filter out specific IDFAs the cost is more likely going to go up which will make DSPs less competitive.

Impact on monetization?

[💎 @12:35] Will publishers be ready to pay for impressions to players without knowing how valuable they are? This will impact impression-level bidding and impression-level revenue reporting. Which means games might move to more IAP for ad-driven games.


Thomas

More IAP is one of the reasons for Apple's shift because their goal is to grow the service category and Apple is not making any money from ad impressions.


Will ad CPMs go down?

Thomas

We will see a temporary drop because some people will freak out and then people will adjust. Is it going to be enough to compensate the higher costs of acquisition?

We will find a new balance but it will take a little time.


Eric

Personalization of ad placements for AEO/VO is a huge part of FB's revenue.

[💎 @16:29] Targeting is the product for Facebook. If you get rid of the targeting, just going for generic/broad level of aggregated revenue won't work. The distribution of spend from users is long tail. If you can't target users individually then if efficiency drops by 20%, even with costs dropping by 20% you might not be able to spend anything because you are no longer able to target high monetizers.

It's already hard to scale even with sophisticated systems at the moment.

Opt-in rate expected: 20%. Eric took guidance on this from GDPR opt-ins have conformed to the specs, opt-in rates were around 10%. And in iOS 14's case, Apple is controlling the pop-up.

Some people think that only 10%-20% of app revenue comes from app installs and it won't hurt FB too much. But if 95% ad revenue comes from mobile, how come app advertising revenue is not at least half?


Advice for subscription apps

Thomas

Main advice is be ready. Act super fast as soon as you can (since we can not deploy anything right now). It's going to happen very quickly so put it on the roadmap.

IDFA has been dead for kids app since June 30. But this means that kid apps have to prepare and fast-forward the adaptation (without being able to use SKAdNetwork until iOS 14).

Shifting money to Android? That's not going to happen that much for now because iPhone users just spend so much more.

[💎 @23:53] Subscription apps have a slight advantage. A lot of subscriptions happen in the first days which will make it easier on reporting. There is also less variance between revenue from different players. However it pushes everyone to be more aggressive with paywalls and that's probably why Apple will iterate a bit on SKAdNetwork and give the ability to receive different events for different periods of time.

Trial often happen within the first hours. However optimizing for free trial for UA can bring people that systematically cancel (e.g. young audience).

A lot of people are going to add signup to the app and it's going to become even more common.


General advice

Nebo

Wait but know that this is coming and learn as much as you can.


[💎 @28:40] Nebo thinks opt-in rates can be higher, especially because you are going to be able to ask for permission later and ask the IDFA of payers. That way you can share the IDFAs of high-value players with platforms.

Be cautious when planning new products, and for investment companies keep a diversified portfolio. Social casino games might be more impacted.


Eric

Think about how monetization ties to events with SKAdNetwork. Try to get the highest value conversion event earlier on.

Convince your users that they can get value out of it, maybe incentivizing it.

Design is going to be even more integrated with UA strategy.