Lior Barak (Senior Data Project Manager at Tale About Data) discusses with Marichka Baluk (Senior Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist - Bite-sized Learning App), Maor Sadra (Co-founder at incrmntal - AI Powered Incrementality Measurement) and Michael Stiller (Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar - Online Marketplace for Used Cars) about how the IDFA changes in iOS 14 brings data analysis back, how analytics team should react to IDFA's deprecation and some things you should do to keep your company running.
It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to one of your user. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this. Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about: 1. How to make sure they collect emails more proactively **2. How to **push retargeting campaigns to just web. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
(Source: David Barnard) On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted (if they toggle it on in "Tracking" settings after the update) to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to one of your user. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this. Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about: 1. How to make sure they collect emails more proactively **2. How to **push retargeting campaigns to just web. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
(Source: David Barnard) On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted (if they toggle it on in "Tracking" settings after the update) to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to one of your user. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this. Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]
As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about: 1. How to make sure they collect emails more proactively **2. How to **push retargeting campaigns to just web. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]
(Source: David Barnard) On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted (if they toggle it on in "Tracking" settings after the update) to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]
Notes for this resource are currently being transferred and will be available soon.
Maor
Back to 1865 even: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.
Concept of determinism in marketing in general just doesn't make sense because you never really know what triggered the user to perform in action. Last touch point not a good indicator of causality.
Michael
We had a false sense of security of how good the data was.
Currently: can track only 60% of company.
But Apple as attribution is not ideal.
[💎 @01:07:20] It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results.
Marichka
Have been building on top of what they had but never really refreshed. It's a good opportunity to do that.
Maor
Challenge there is is actually trying to make sense of the data when the data indeed makes absolutely no sense. Example: how many clicks/impressions you saw yesterday.
Attribution for SKAdNetwork still relies on last tap/click, which is flawed.
Offline brands to a media mix model. Example: Coca with campaign during a specific date range then looking at the score/results.
Michael
Media Mix models also have their weaknesses: because campaigns are always on, so you rely on a baseline and a change.
You always need variation.
Michael
Theoretically if you have a campaign with a clear spike you can extrapolate to retention. Example: campaign generated 1k users uplift and you're also seeing uplift in sessions → conclusion on retention.
That can be ok if you don't have a lot going on. But you can not replace cohort reports, customer journeys, user LTV.
Maor
Zalando built an attribution model internally?
Assigning the value of a download to a single ad doesn't make sense.
[💎 @01:15:19] Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to your user.
You can still understand who your users are.
IDFAs will reset is the common opinion.
Marichka
Being able to adjust your marketing spend, have personalized onboarding and estimate revenue based on users is important.
There will be pre-signup aggregated data but it will be messy and not relevant.
Michael
You just won't know where users came from.
At heycar, some marketing sources have a 300% differential on how likely they are to convert. Example: someone from Facebook feed not serious vs. search intent on Google.
You won't be able to follow users around.
Maor
2005 was about contextual advertising.
[💎 @01:18:34] As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while.
Problem: if others abuse.
You might want to invest in contextual right now.
Michael
User analytics not really affected.
[💎 @01:20:28] A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house.
Best solution is probably a solution that was conceived in this time and rolled out to people that were not sophisticated before, including smaller companies.
Maor
Early days of MMPs: competition was in-house attribution.
Companies are thinking about how to measure incrementality in-house.
Marichka
Developing in-house and already facing but will keep iterating. MMPs still ver unclear.
Michael
MMPs have always brought the low value part of the chain with the attribution.
[💎 @01:24:10] A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this.
Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently.
Maor
Uber had all the tools: attribution, fraud detection, etc. but tested cutting spend 10% then cutting spend 80% and nothing changed. Yet they came over this by chance because all their KPIs looked good
Source here: https://www.alistdaily.com/lifestyle/kevin-frisch-uber-ad-fraud/
More here: https://medium.com/swlh/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8
Michael
With the pandemic there has already be a decrease in budget in a lot of companies.
[💎 @01:28:22] iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference.
Marichka
[💎 @01:29:30] As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads.
Maor
CEOs of retargeting DSPs say there is a SKAdNetwork postback for re-install and are counting on CPMs to drop and retargeting all audience (instead of retargeting a specific audience).
User cohorts are most likely to disappear but as an advertisers you can still do push, email, you still have IDFV
More acquisitions to increase network size.
Marichka
[💎 @01:31:54] Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about:
1. How to make sure they get emails more proactively
2. How to push retargeting campaigns to just web.
Maor
A lot of apps are thinking about how to get user registration.
Maor
It's a question of when for Google and it will go to a sandbox solution. Google not a leader when it comes to privacy.
Michael
Companies are the ones that carry the risk for the huge companies, that usually get stronger in crisis.
Google can use sign in on browser, use the operating system, etc.
Marichka
Hopes there's still time to buy with Google, and that Google will not shoot themselves in the foot.
[💎 @01:36:45] Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed.
Maor
Advertisers prefer using Firebase for UAC because it gives more control. If Google was to kill GAID for everyone else, the best source would be Google.
Facebook flagged a risk on the Apple change.
IDFAs will reset? Is there a source?
Will SSO with Facebook or Google work even after a user chooses not to be tracked?
Do you see any changes happening in the reports and how you collect data?
Types of professionals that brands will need to have for media buying?
Maor
Back to 1865 even: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.
Concept of determinism in marketing in general just doesn't make sense because you never really know what triggered the user to perform in action. Last touch point not a good indicator of causality.
Michael
We had a false sense of security of how good the data was.
Currently: can track only 60% of company.
But Apple as attribution is not ideal.
[💎 @01:07:20] It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results.
Marichka
Have been building on top of what they had but never really refreshed. It's a good opportunity to do that.
Maor
Challenge there is is actually trying to make sense of the data when the data indeed makes absolutely no sense. Example: how many clicks/impressions you saw yesterday.
Attribution for SKAdNetwork still relies on last tap/click, which is flawed.
Offline brands to a media mix model. Example: Coca with campaign during a specific date range then looking at the score/results.
Michael
Media Mix models also have their weaknesses: because campaigns are always on, so you rely on a baseline and a change.
You always need variation.
Michael
Theoretically if you have a campaign with a clear spike you can extrapolate to retention. Example: campaign generated 1k users uplift and you're also seeing uplift in sessions → conclusion on retention.
That can be ok if you don't have a lot going on. But you can not replace cohort reports, customer journeys, user LTV.
Maor
Zalando built an attribution model internally?
Assigning the value of a download to a single ad doesn't make sense.
[💎 @01:15:19] Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to your user.
You can still understand who your users are.
IDFAs will reset is the common opinion.
Marichka
Being able to adjust your marketing spend, have personalized onboarding and estimate revenue based on users is important.
There will be pre-signup aggregated data but it will be messy and not relevant.
Michael
You just won't know where users came from.
At heycar, some marketing sources have a 300% differential on how likely they are to convert. Example: someone from Facebook feed not serious vs. search intent on Google.
You won't be able to follow users around.
Maor
2005 was about contextual advertising.
[💎 @01:18:34] As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while.
Problem: if others abuse.
You might want to invest in contextual right now.
Michael
User analytics not really affected.
[💎 @01:20:28] A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house.
Best solution is probably a solution that was conceived in this time and rolled out to people that were not sophisticated before, including smaller companies.
Maor
Early days of MMPs: competition was in-house attribution.
Companies are thinking about how to measure incrementality in-house.
Marichka
Developing in-house and already facing but will keep iterating. MMPs still ver unclear.
Michael
MMPs have always brought the low value part of the chain with the attribution.
[💎 @01:24:10] A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this.
Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently.
Maor
Uber had all the tools: attribution, fraud detection, etc. but tested cutting spend 10% then cutting spend 80% and nothing changed. Yet they came over this by chance because all their KPIs looked good
Source here: https://www.alistdaily.com/lifestyle/kevin-frisch-uber-ad-fraud/
More here: https://medium.com/swlh/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8
Michael
With the pandemic there has already be a decrease in budget in a lot of companies.
[💎 @01:28:22] iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference.
Marichka
[💎 @01:29:30] As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads.
Maor
CEOs of retargeting DSPs say there is a SKAdNetwork postback for re-install and are counting on CPMs to drop and retargeting all audience (instead of retargeting a specific audience).
User cohorts are most likely to disappear but as an advertisers you can still do push, email, you still have IDFV
More acquisitions to increase network size.
Marichka
[💎 @01:31:54] Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about:
1. How to make sure they get emails more proactively
2. How to push retargeting campaigns to just web.
Maor
A lot of apps are thinking about how to get user registration.
Maor
It's a question of when for Google and it will go to a sandbox solution. Google not a leader when it comes to privacy.
Michael
Companies are the ones that carry the risk for the huge companies, that usually get stronger in crisis.
Google can use sign in on browser, use the operating system, etc.
Marichka
Hopes there's still time to buy with Google, and that Google will not shoot themselves in the foot.
[💎 @01:36:45] Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed.
Maor
Advertisers prefer using Firebase for UAC because it gives more control. If Google was to kill GAID for everyone else, the best source would be Google.
Facebook flagged a risk on the Apple change.
IDFAs will reset? Is there a source?
Will SSO with Facebook or Google work even after a user chooses not to be tracked?
Do you see any changes happening in the reports and how you collect data?
Types of professionals that brands will need to have for media buying?
Maor
Back to 1865 even: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.
Concept of determinism in marketing in general just doesn't make sense because you never really know what triggered the user to perform in action. Last touch point not a good indicator of causality.
Michael
We had a false sense of security of how good the data was.
Currently: can track only 60% of company.
But Apple as attribution is not ideal.
[💎 @01:07:20] It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results.
Marichka
Have been building on top of what they had but never really refreshed. It's a good opportunity to do that.
Maor
Challenge there is is actually trying to make sense of the data when the data indeed makes absolutely no sense. Example: how many clicks/impressions you saw yesterday.
Attribution for SKAdNetwork still relies on last tap/click, which is flawed.
Offline brands to a media mix model. Example: Coca with campaign during a specific date range then looking at the score/results.
Michael
Media Mix models also have their weaknesses: because campaigns are always on, so you rely on a baseline and a change.
You always need variation.
Michael
Theoretically if you have a campaign with a clear spike you can extrapolate to retention. Example: campaign generated 1k users uplift and you're also seeing uplift in sessions → conclusion on retention.
That can be ok if you don't have a lot going on. But you can not replace cohort reports, customer journeys, user LTV.
Maor
Zalando built an attribution model internally?
Assigning the value of a download to a single ad doesn't make sense.
[💎 @01:15:19] Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to your user.
You can still understand who your users are.
IDFAs will reset is the common opinion.
Marichka
Being able to adjust your marketing spend, have personalized onboarding and estimate revenue based on users is important.
There will be pre-signup aggregated data but it will be messy and not relevant.
Michael
You just won't know where users came from.
At heycar, some marketing sources have a 300% differential on how likely they are to convert. Example: someone from Facebook feed not serious vs. search intent on Google.
You won't be able to follow users around.
Maor
2005 was about contextual advertising.
[💎 @01:18:34] As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while.
Problem: if others abuse.
You might want to invest in contextual right now.
Michael
User analytics not really affected.
[💎 @01:20:28] A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house.
Best solution is probably a solution that was conceived in this time and rolled out to people that were not sophisticated before, including smaller companies.
Maor
Early days of MMPs: competition was in-house attribution.
Companies are thinking about how to measure incrementality in-house.
Marichka
Developing in-house and already facing but will keep iterating. MMPs still ver unclear.
Michael
MMPs have always brought the low value part of the chain with the attribution.
[💎 @01:24:10] A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this.
Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently.
Maor
Uber had all the tools: attribution, fraud detection, etc. but tested cutting spend 10% then cutting spend 80% and nothing changed. Yet they came over this by chance because all their KPIs looked good
Source here: https://www.alistdaily.com/lifestyle/kevin-frisch-uber-ad-fraud/
More here: https://medium.com/swlh/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8
Michael
With the pandemic there has already be a decrease in budget in a lot of companies.
[💎 @01:28:22] iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference.
Marichka
[💎 @01:29:30] As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads.
Maor
CEOs of retargeting DSPs say there is a SKAdNetwork postback for re-install and are counting on CPMs to drop and retargeting all audience (instead of retargeting a specific audience).
User cohorts are most likely to disappear but as an advertisers you can still do push, email, you still have IDFV
More acquisitions to increase network size.
Marichka
[💎 @01:31:54] Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about:
1. How to make sure they get emails more proactively
2. How to push retargeting campaigns to just web.
Maor
A lot of apps are thinking about how to get user registration.
Maor
It's a question of when for Google and it will go to a sandbox solution. Google not a leader when it comes to privacy.
Michael
Companies are the ones that carry the risk for the huge companies, that usually get stronger in crisis.
Google can use sign in on browser, use the operating system, etc.
Marichka
Hopes there's still time to buy with Google, and that Google will not shoot themselves in the foot.
[💎 @01:36:45] Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed.
Maor
Advertisers prefer using Firebase for UAC because it gives more control. If Google was to kill GAID for everyone else, the best source would be Google.
Facebook flagged a risk on the Apple change.
IDFAs will reset? Is there a source?
Will SSO with Facebook or Google work even after a user chooses not to be tracked?
Do you see any changes happening in the reports and how you collect data?
Types of professionals that brands will need to have for media buying?
