IDFA Sends Data Analysis Back to the Stone Age

Item not bookmarked
Resource bookmarked
Bookmarking...
⛏️
Guest Miner:
Sylvain Gauchet
Review star
Review star
Review star
Review star
Review star
💎  x
10

Lior Barak (Senior Data Project Manager at Tale About Data) discusses with Marichka Baluk (Senior Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist - Bite-sized Learning App), Maor Sadra (Co-founder at incrmntal - AI Powered Incrementality Measurement) and Michael Stiller (Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar - Online Marketplace for Used Cars) about how the IDFA changes in iOS 14 brings data analysis back, how analytics team should react to IDFA's deprecation and some things you should do to keep your company running.

Source:
IDFA Sends Data Analysis Back to the Stone Age
(no direct link to watch/listen)
(direct link to watch/listen)
Type:
Panel
Publication date:
August 11, 2020
Added to the Vault on:
August 16, 2020
Invite a guest
Unlock 600+ mobile growth insights 💎 - for FREE
💎 #
1

It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:07:20
💎 #
2

Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to one of your user. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:15:19
💎 #
3

As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:18:34
💎 #
4

A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:20:28
💎 #
5

A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this. Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:24:10
💎 #
6

 iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:28:22
💎 #
7

As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:29:30
💎 #
8

Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about: 1. How to make sure they collect emails more proactively **2. How to **push retargeting campaigns to just web. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:31:54
💎 #
9

Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:36:45
💎 #
10

(Source: David Barnard) On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted (if they toggle it on in "Tracking" settings after the update) to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:39:40
The gems from this resource are only available to premium members.
  • Unlock access to gems from 170+ mobile growth resources
  • Define your preferred categories and receive new relevant gems directly in your inbox
  • Receive the hottest gems 🔥 (most valuable insights) each month
Upgrade Your Plan
💎 #
1

It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:07:20
💎 #
2

Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to one of your user. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:15:19
💎 #
3

As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:18:34
💎 #
4

A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:20:28
💎 #
5

A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this. Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:24:10
💎 #
6

 iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:28:22
💎 #
7

As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:29:30
💎 #
8

Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about: 1. How to make sure they collect emails more proactively **2. How to **push retargeting campaigns to just web. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:31:54
💎 #
9

Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:36:45
💎 #
10

(Source: David Barnard) On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted (if they toggle it on in "Tracking" settings after the update) to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:39:40
The gems from this resource are only available to premium members.

Gems are the key bite-size insights "mined" from a specific mobile marketing resource, like a webinar, a panel or a podcast.
They allow you to save time by grasping the most important information in a couple of minutes, and also each include the timestamp from the source.

Become a member to:
  • Unlock access to gems from 170+ mobile growth resources
  • Define your preferred categories and receive new relevant gems directly in your inbox
  • Receive the hottest gems 🔥 (most valuable insights) each month
GET Access
💎 #
1

It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:07:20
💎 #
2

Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to one of your user. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:15:19
💎 #
3

As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:18:34
💎 #
4

A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:20:28
💎 #
5

A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this. Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:24:10
💎 #
6

 iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference. [Michael Stiller, Marketing & Business Analytics Expert at heycar]

01:28:22
💎 #
7

As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:29:30
💎 #
8

Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about: 1. How to make sure they collect emails more proactively **2. How to **push retargeting campaigns to just web. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:31:54
💎 #
9

Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed. [Marichka Baluk, Sr. Performance Marketing Manager at Blinkist]

01:36:45
💎 #
10

(Source: David Barnard) On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted (if they toggle it on in "Tracking" settings after the update) to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets. [Maor, Co-founder at incrmntal]

01:39:40
The access to discussions on each resource is only available to premium members.

Growth Gems members discuss resources and their key insights (as well as other mobile growth topics) in the community. It's the perfect way to dig deeper, ask questions and get additional perspectives.
Upgrade to premium to:
  • Unlock access to key insights from 170+ mobile growth resources
  • Define your preferred categories and receive new relevant gems directly in your inbox
  • Discuss key insights (and any other mobile growth topic) in the member-only community.
Upgrade Your Plan
The access to discussions on each resource is only available to premium members.

Growth Gems members discuss resources and their key insights (as well as other mobile growth topics) in the community. It's the perfect way to dig deeper, ask questions and get additional perspectives.
Become a member to:
  • Unlock access to gems from 170+ mobile growth resources
  • Define your preferred categories and receive new relevant gems directly in your inbox
  • Discuss key insights (and any other mobile growth topic) in the member-only community.
GET Access

You need to be logged in the community to be able to see the discussion below.
You can also head over directly to this topic in the community

Notes for this resource are currently being transferred and will be available soon.

Are we going back to 2005?

Maor

Back to 1865 even: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.

Concept of determinism in marketing in general just doesn't make sense because you never really know what triggered the user to perform in action. Last touch point not a good indicator of causality.


Michael

We had a false sense of security of how good the data was.

Currently: can track only 60% of company.

But Apple as attribution is not ideal.

[💎 @01:07:20] It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results.


Marichka

Have been building on top of what they had but never really refreshed. It's a good opportunity to do that.


Maor

Challenge there is is actually trying to make sense of the data when the data indeed makes absolutely no sense. Example: how many clicks/impressions you saw yesterday.

Attribution for SKAdNetwork still relies on last tap/click, which is flawed.

Offline brands to a media mix model. Example: Coca with campaign during a specific date range then looking at the score/results.


Michael

Media Mix models also have their weaknesses: because campaigns are always on, so you rely on a baseline and a change.

You always need variation.

What about retention? What do you use as "username"?

Michael

Theoretically if you have a campaign with a clear spike you can extrapolate to retention. Example: campaign generated 1k users uplift and you're also seeing uplift in sessions → conclusion on retention.

That can be ok if you don't have a lot going on. But you can not replace cohort reports, customer journeys, user LTV.


Maor

Zalando built an attribution model internally?

Assigning the value of a download to a single ad doesn't make sense.

[💎 @01:15:19] Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to your user.

You can still understand who your users are.

IDFAs will reset is the common opinion.


Marichka

Being able to adjust your marketing spend, have personalized onboarding and estimate revenue based on users is important.

There will be pre-signup aggregated data but it will be messy and not relevant.


Michael

You just won't know where users came from.

At heycar, some marketing sources have a 300% differential on how likely they are to convert. Example: someone from Facebook feed not serious vs. search intent on Google.

You won't be able to follow users around.


Maor

2005 was about contextual advertising.

[💎 @01:18:34] As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while.

Problem: if others abuse.

You might want to invest in contextual right now.

More in-house solutions?

Michael

User analytics not really affected.

[💎 @01:20:28] A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house.

Best solution is probably a solution that was conceived in this time and rolled out to people that were not sophisticated before, including smaller companies.


Maor

Early days of MMPs: competition was in-house attribution.

Companies are thinking about how to measure incrementality in-house.


Marichka

Developing in-house and already facing but will keep iterating. MMPs still ver unclear.


Michael

MMPs have always brought the low value part of the chain with the attribution.

[💎 @01:24:10] A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this.

Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently.


Maor

Uber had all the tools: attribution, fraud detection, etc. but tested cutting spend 10% then cutting spend 80% and nothing changed. Yet they came over this by chance because all their KPIs looked good

Source here: https://www.alistdaily.com/lifestyle/kevin-frisch-uber-ad-fraud/

More here: https://medium.com/swlh/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8

Changes in spend?

Michael

With the pandemic there has already be a decrease in budget in a lot of companies.

[💎 @01:28:22] iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference.


Marichka

[💎 @01:29:30] As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads.

Retargeting and reactivation ads

Maor

CEOs of retargeting DSPs say there is a SKAdNetwork postback for re-install and are counting on CPMs to drop and retargeting all audience (instead of retargeting a specific audience).

User cohorts are most likely to disappear but as an advertisers you can still do push, email, you still have IDFV

More acquisitions to increase network size.


Marichka

[💎 @01:31:54] Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about:

1. How to make sure they get emails more proactively

2. How to push retargeting campaigns to just web.


Maor

A lot of apps are thinking about how to get user registration.

Will Android follow the same direction?

Maor

It's a question of when for Google and it will go to a sandbox solution. Google not a leader when it comes to privacy.


Michael

Companies are the ones that carry the risk for the huge companies, that usually get stronger in crisis.

Google can use sign in on browser, use the operating system, etc.


Marichka

Hopes there's still time to buy with Google, and that Google will not shoot themselves in the foot.

[💎 @01:36:45] Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed.


Maor

Advertisers prefer using Firebase for UAC because it gives more control. If Google was to kill GAID for everyone else, the best source would be Google.

Facebook flagged a risk on the Apple change.

Q&A

IDFAs will reset? Is there a source?

  • Maor: David Barnard has tested iOS 14.
  • [💎 @01:39:40] On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets.

Will SSO with Facebook or Google work even after a user chooses not to be tracked?

  • Michael: IDFA not related to SSO all that much because the 3rd party logins have their own id. Hard to say.

Do you see any changes happening in the reports and how you collect data?

  • Michael: already have data warehouse and the marketing sources are just a piece of the puzzle. They'll first have organic traffic showing then will perform statistical ad-hoc analysis to know which channels drive conversions (through correlation). Will try to cross-reference with the SKAdNetwork.
  • Marichka: trying to prepare for what's happening and implementing fallbacks to be able to track even if it's with less granularity then adjust on the go.
  • Maor: built a solution that does not depend on the IDFA and work from the install onwards because they thought the change could come. Amazing news for them.

Types of professionals that brands will need to have for media buying?

  • Lior: it's going to change drastically but it is going to take time. There's going to be more data engineers and scientists moving to marketing teams. No big changes before we see the full impact.
  • Maor: 2 years ago → product managers are the marketers of the future. The typical profile is now someone very tech savvy.
  • Michael: There has been hype about bringing marketing tech inside of companies (bidding automation, etc.). But if you're using a lot of the user-level information a lot of these will make less sense and people will rely even more on Facebook and Google's algorithms.
  • Maor: switch to product because it's about to polish your funnel in your app. Advertising will be more challenging for companies with a lot of acquisition channels for their app or that need a lot of scales. Analytics will come back stronger, creatives also.

The notes from this resource are only available to premium members.
↘ At this point, you know what to do ↙
Upgrade Your Plan

Are we going back to 2005?

Maor

Back to 1865 even: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.

Concept of determinism in marketing in general just doesn't make sense because you never really know what triggered the user to perform in action. Last touch point not a good indicator of causality.


Michael

We had a false sense of security of how good the data was.

Currently: can track only 60% of company.

But Apple as attribution is not ideal.

[💎 @01:07:20] It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results.


Marichka

Have been building on top of what they had but never really refreshed. It's a good opportunity to do that.


Maor

Challenge there is is actually trying to make sense of the data when the data indeed makes absolutely no sense. Example: how many clicks/impressions you saw yesterday.

Attribution for SKAdNetwork still relies on last tap/click, which is flawed.

Offline brands to a media mix model. Example: Coca with campaign during a specific date range then looking at the score/results.


Michael

Media Mix models also have their weaknesses: because campaigns are always on, so you rely on a baseline and a change.

You always need variation.

What about retention? What do you use as "username"?

Michael

Theoretically if you have a campaign with a clear spike you can extrapolate to retention. Example: campaign generated 1k users uplift and you're also seeing uplift in sessions → conclusion on retention.

That can be ok if you don't have a lot going on. But you can not replace cohort reports, customer journeys, user LTV.


Maor

Zalando built an attribution model internally?

Assigning the value of a download to a single ad doesn't make sense.

[💎 @01:15:19] Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to your user.

You can still understand who your users are.

IDFAs will reset is the common opinion.


Marichka

Being able to adjust your marketing spend, have personalized onboarding and estimate revenue based on users is important.

There will be pre-signup aggregated data but it will be messy and not relevant.


Michael

You just won't know where users came from.

At heycar, some marketing sources have a 300% differential on how likely they are to convert. Example: someone from Facebook feed not serious vs. search intent on Google.

You won't be able to follow users around.


Maor

2005 was about contextual advertising.

[💎 @01:18:34] As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while.

Problem: if others abuse.

You might want to invest in contextual right now.

More in-house solutions?

Michael

User analytics not really affected.

[💎 @01:20:28] A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house.

Best solution is probably a solution that was conceived in this time and rolled out to people that were not sophisticated before, including smaller companies.


Maor

Early days of MMPs: competition was in-house attribution.

Companies are thinking about how to measure incrementality in-house.


Marichka

Developing in-house and already facing but will keep iterating. MMPs still ver unclear.


Michael

MMPs have always brought the low value part of the chain with the attribution.

[💎 @01:24:10] A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this.

Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently.


Maor

Uber had all the tools: attribution, fraud detection, etc. but tested cutting spend 10% then cutting spend 80% and nothing changed. Yet they came over this by chance because all their KPIs looked good

Source here: https://www.alistdaily.com/lifestyle/kevin-frisch-uber-ad-fraud/

More here: https://medium.com/swlh/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8

Changes in spend?

Michael

With the pandemic there has already be a decrease in budget in a lot of companies.

[💎 @01:28:22] iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference.


Marichka

[💎 @01:29:30] As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads.

Retargeting and reactivation ads

Maor

CEOs of retargeting DSPs say there is a SKAdNetwork postback for re-install and are counting on CPMs to drop and retargeting all audience (instead of retargeting a specific audience).

User cohorts are most likely to disappear but as an advertisers you can still do push, email, you still have IDFV

More acquisitions to increase network size.


Marichka

[💎 @01:31:54] Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about:

1. How to make sure they get emails more proactively

2. How to push retargeting campaigns to just web.


Maor

A lot of apps are thinking about how to get user registration.

Will Android follow the same direction?

Maor

It's a question of when for Google and it will go to a sandbox solution. Google not a leader when it comes to privacy.


Michael

Companies are the ones that carry the risk for the huge companies, that usually get stronger in crisis.

Google can use sign in on browser, use the operating system, etc.


Marichka

Hopes there's still time to buy with Google, and that Google will not shoot themselves in the foot.

[💎 @01:36:45] Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed.


Maor

Advertisers prefer using Firebase for UAC because it gives more control. If Google was to kill GAID for everyone else, the best source would be Google.

Facebook flagged a risk on the Apple change.

Q&A

IDFAs will reset? Is there a source?

  • Maor: David Barnard has tested iOS 14.
  • [💎 @01:39:40] On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets.

Will SSO with Facebook or Google work even after a user chooses not to be tracked?

  • Michael: IDFA not related to SSO all that much because the 3rd party logins have their own id. Hard to say.

Do you see any changes happening in the reports and how you collect data?

  • Michael: already have data warehouse and the marketing sources are just a piece of the puzzle. They'll first have organic traffic showing then will perform statistical ad-hoc analysis to know which channels drive conversions (through correlation). Will try to cross-reference with the SKAdNetwork.
  • Marichka: trying to prepare for what's happening and implementing fallbacks to be able to track even if it's with less granularity then adjust on the go.
  • Maor: built a solution that does not depend on the IDFA and work from the install onwards because they thought the change could come. Amazing news for them.

Types of professionals that brands will need to have for media buying?

  • Lior: it's going to change drastically but it is going to take time. There's going to be more data engineers and scientists moving to marketing teams. No big changes before we see the full impact.
  • Maor: 2 years ago → product managers are the marketers of the future. The typical profile is now someone very tech savvy.
  • Michael: There has been hype about bringing marketing tech inside of companies (bidding automation, etc.). But if you're using a lot of the user-level information a lot of these will make less sense and people will rely even more on Facebook and Google's algorithms.
  • Maor: switch to product because it's about to polish your funnel in your app. Advertising will be more challenging for companies with a lot of acquisition channels for their app or that need a lot of scales. Analytics will come back stronger, creatives also.

The notes from this resource are only available to premium members.

The detailed notes taken for a resource are an easy way to see the gems in context to get a better understanding. They also include any relevant visuals from the source.
↘ At this point, you know what to do ↙
GET Access

Are we going back to 2005?

Maor

Back to 1865 even: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.

Concept of determinism in marketing in general just doesn't make sense because you never really know what triggered the user to perform in action. Last touch point not a good indicator of causality.


Michael

We had a false sense of security of how good the data was.

Currently: can track only 60% of company.

But Apple as attribution is not ideal.

[💎 @01:07:20] It's dangerous that Apple wants to both sell ads on the App Store and attribute the results.


Marichka

Have been building on top of what they had but never really refreshed. It's a good opportunity to do that.


Maor

Challenge there is is actually trying to make sense of the data when the data indeed makes absolutely no sense. Example: how many clicks/impressions you saw yesterday.

Attribution for SKAdNetwork still relies on last tap/click, which is flawed.

Offline brands to a media mix model. Example: Coca with campaign during a specific date range then looking at the score/results.


Michael

Media Mix models also have their weaknesses: because campaigns are always on, so you rely on a baseline and a change.

You always need variation.

What about retention? What do you use as "username"?

Michael

Theoretically if you have a campaign with a clear spike you can extrapolate to retention. Example: campaign generated 1k users uplift and you're also seeing uplift in sessions → conclusion on retention.

That can be ok if you don't have a lot going on. But you can not replace cohort reports, customer journeys, user LTV.


Maor

Zalando built an attribution model internally?

Assigning the value of a download to a single ad doesn't make sense.

[💎 @01:15:19] Advertisers will still be able to identify their users, segment them, etc. The only thing that is being eliminated is the ability to connect someone before they became your user, to your user.

You can still understand who your users are.

IDFAs will reset is the common opinion.


Marichka

Being able to adjust your marketing spend, have personalized onboarding and estimate revenue based on users is important.

There will be pre-signup aggregated data but it will be messy and not relevant.


Michael

You just won't know where users came from.

At heycar, some marketing sources have a 300% differential on how likely they are to convert. Example: someone from Facebook feed not serious vs. search intent on Google.

You won't be able to follow users around.


Maor

2005 was about contextual advertising.

[💎 @01:18:34] As an advertiser, if you have something working so far you should not change your media mix when iOS 14 comes. It will continue working but you will be a bit blinder for a while.

Problem: if others abuse.

You might want to invest in contextual right now.

More in-house solutions?

Michael

User analytics not really affected.

[💎 @01:20:28] A lot of marketing people have not been very sophisticated with their data anyway, and they'll just download/get their aggregated data from somewhere else. The more sophisticated people might look to build in-house.

Best solution is probably a solution that was conceived in this time and rolled out to people that were not sophisticated before, including smaller companies.


Maor

Early days of MMPs: competition was in-house attribution.

Companies are thinking about how to measure incrementality in-house.


Marichka

Developing in-house and already facing but will keep iterating. MMPs still ver unclear.


Michael

MMPs have always brought the low value part of the chain with the attribution.

[💎 @01:24:10] A lot of companies have not been doing media mix modeling: looking at the correlation between marketing spend and revenues, diminishing returns above/below a certain spend, etc. Everyone should do this.

Example: maybe the saturation point for your business is buying 50k users a week efficiently.


Maor

Uber had all the tools: attribution, fraud detection, etc. but tested cutting spend 10% then cutting spend 80% and nothing changed. Yet they came over this by chance because all their KPIs looked good

Source here: https://www.alistdaily.com/lifestyle/kevin-frisch-uber-ad-fraud/

More here: https://medium.com/swlh/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8

Changes in spend?

Michael

With the pandemic there has already be a decrease in budget in a lot of companies.

[💎 @01:28:22] iOS 14 might trigger companies to think more about automation because with a decreased advertising budget, salaries of performance marketers make more of a difference.


Marichka

[💎 @01:29:30] As a company working across web and Android as well, Blinkist is thinking about shifting budgets while things are unclear → be safer, test creatives, test onboarding. We can probably also expect a huge increase in Apple Search Ads.

Retargeting and reactivation ads

Maor

CEOs of retargeting DSPs say there is a SKAdNetwork postback for re-install and are counting on CPMs to drop and retargeting all audience (instead of retargeting a specific audience).

User cohorts are most likely to disappear but as an advertisers you can still do push, email, you still have IDFV

More acquisitions to increase network size.


Marichka

[💎 @01:31:54] Retargeting on mobile now seems pretty impossible. Blinkist is thinking about:

1. How to make sure they get emails more proactively

2. How to push retargeting campaigns to just web.


Maor

A lot of apps are thinking about how to get user registration.

Will Android follow the same direction?

Maor

It's a question of when for Google and it will go to a sandbox solution. Google not a leader when it comes to privacy.


Michael

Companies are the ones that carry the risk for the huge companies, that usually get stronger in crisis.

Google can use sign in on browser, use the operating system, etc.


Marichka

Hopes there's still time to buy with Google, and that Google will not shoot themselves in the foot.

[💎 @01:36:45] Considering how Google is pushing for Firebase as the only thing that allows advertisers to unlock interesting features, it's probable that when Google follows suit Firebase will be needed.


Maor

Advertisers prefer using Firebase for UAC because it gives more control. If Google was to kill GAID for everyone else, the best source would be Google.

Facebook flagged a risk on the Apple change.

Q&A

IDFAs will reset? Is there a source?

  • Maor: David Barnard has tested iOS 14.
  • [💎 @01:39:40] On iOS 14 the IDFA is inaccessible unless the user agrees to tracking. Users that have LAT On for iOS 13 can be prompted to agree to tracking and when you are re-enabling your tracking it seems that the IDFA resets.

Will SSO with Facebook or Google work even after a user chooses not to be tracked?

  • Michael: IDFA not related to SSO all that much because the 3rd party logins have their own id. Hard to say.

Do you see any changes happening in the reports and how you collect data?

  • Michael: already have data warehouse and the marketing sources are just a piece of the puzzle. They'll first have organic traffic showing then will perform statistical ad-hoc analysis to know which channels drive conversions (through correlation). Will try to cross-reference with the SKAdNetwork.
  • Marichka: trying to prepare for what's happening and implementing fallbacks to be able to track even if it's with less granularity then adjust on the go.
  • Maor: built a solution that does not depend on the IDFA and work from the install onwards because they thought the change could come. Amazing news for them.

Types of professionals that brands will need to have for media buying?

  • Lior: it's going to change drastically but it is going to take time. There's going to be more data engineers and scientists moving to marketing teams. No big changes before we see the full impact.
  • Maor: 2 years ago → product managers are the marketers of the future. The typical profile is now someone very tech savvy.
  • Michael: There has been hype about bringing marketing tech inside of companies (bidding automation, etc.). But if you're using a lot of the user-level information a lot of these will make less sense and people will rely even more on Facebook and Google's algorithms.
  • Maor: switch to product because it's about to polish your funnel in your app. Advertising will be more challenging for companies with a lot of acquisition channels for their app or that need a lot of scales. Analytics will come back stronger, creatives also.