Mama Connect Episode 2 - Is LTV Now TBC?

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Alexandra Kleeman (Head of Marketing at Shpock - classifieds mobile marketplace), Georgy Natsvishvili (Head of Organic Growth at Glovo - groceries/food delivery) and Thomas Petit (Mobile Growth Expert) discuss the basics of LTV modeling, metrics & measures and how to balance CPI and LTV to achieve a positive ROI.

Source:
Mama Connect Episode 2 - Is LTV Now TBC?
(no direct link to watch/listen)
(direct link to watch/listen)
Type:
Panel
Publication date:
April 27, 2020
Added to the Vault on:
May 31, 2020
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💎 #
1

If you're hurt from the crisis, instead of doing brand or DR invest the remaining budget that you have into existing users: what you have, the changes you've made, how they can still use the service. Try to keep your users with re-engagement rather than going after new users. 

26:05
💎 #
2

Everybody is now a startup: extreme uncertainty, low budget, necessity to go very fast. You need to adapt and pivot. Example: Blablacar to Blabla help, events to online, etc. 

26:48
💎 #
3

For subscription businesses there is a bigger focus on the payback rather than LTV. You don't know how much you're going to make so you monitor what you're making right now. Example: moving to yearly subscriptions instead of 1 month.  

38:20
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💎 #
1

If you're hurt from the crisis, instead of doing brand or DR invest the remaining budget that you have into existing users: what you have, the changes you've made, how they can still use the service. Try to keep your users with re-engagement rather than going after new users. 

26:05
💎 #
2

Everybody is now a startup: extreme uncertainty, low budget, necessity to go very fast. You need to adapt and pivot. Example: Blablacar to Blabla help, events to online, etc. 

26:48
💎 #
3

For subscription businesses there is a bigger focus on the payback rather than LTV. You don't know how much you're going to make so you monitor what you're making right now. Example: moving to yearly subscriptions instead of 1 month.  

38:20
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💎 #
1

If you're hurt from the crisis, instead of doing brand or DR invest the remaining budget that you have into existing users: what you have, the changes you've made, how they can still use the service. Try to keep your users with re-engagement rather than going after new users. 

26:05
💎 #
2

Everybody is now a startup: extreme uncertainty, low budget, necessity to go very fast. You need to adapt and pivot. Example: Blablacar to Blabla help, events to online, etc. 

26:48
💎 #
3

For subscription businesses there is a bigger focus on the payback rather than LTV. You don't know how much you're going to make so you monitor what you're making right now. Example: moving to yearly subscriptions instead of 1 month.  

38:20
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[📢 @06:13] Shout out from Thomas for GrowthGems.co

Context of coronavirus

  • Reaction depends on each company (position, cash in the bank), even within a vertical. You don't want to miss out on an opportunity but it can also be risky.
  • You need to make sure you're relevant and not opportunistic.
  • Opportunities for food delivery and there are also other verticals that can be interesting to explore. Georgy mentioned this article by McKinsey. Shift from offline to online advertisement?


Georgy (Glovo)

  • Almost back to pre-covid numbers but at the same time boost of installs is now decreasing
  • Makes a lot of companies in "startup mode" where they have more uncertainties

Everybody is now a startup


Alexandra (Shpock)

  • Very local and people would usually meet up to exchanging goods
  • Over the last months started to pivot to mobile marketplace where people pay in the app and then there is shipping.
  • Always knew that they needed that but they wouldn't change the model fully and drop the legacy marketplace that they built. But with coronavirus they had to take the decision to tell/force users to transact through the app and not meet.
  • It took 8 days to integrate contact-less delivery through a carrier service. Repurposed some marketing money to co-found the delivery service for users


Thomas

Factors regarding budget to spend. Does it make sense to maintain a small part of the budget for "brand"?  A lot of companies tend to cut long-term (like branding) and not short-term (DR). Advertising your brand at this moment can be risky and perceived the wrong way by customers.

[💎 @26:05] If you're hurt from the crisis, instead of doing brand or DR invest the remaining budget that you have into existing users: what you have, the changes you've made, how they can still use the service. Try to keep your users with re-engagement rather than going after new users.


[💎 @26:48] Everybody is now a startup: extreme uncertainty, low budget, necessity to go very fast. You need to adapt and pivot. Example: Blablacar to Blabla help, events to online, etc.

This means startups are at an advantage vs. other more established companies.


Risks when it comes to LTV modeling

Georgy (Glovo)

  • Don't know what's going to happen so not doing any LTV forecasts.
  • COVID situation changes what a loyal user is: mix of groceries vs. food delivery is changing.
  • Sensibility of delivery time completely change. Timing was really important, and now with groceries users don't really care so for Glovo it doesn't matter if they deliver in 1 hour or 30 minutes. Cancellations and missing items is more important.
  • Satisfaction and NPS increases because of become a "help to survive".
  • Customers are more or less price-sensitive depending on the country.


Alexandra (Shpock)

  • CPMs are fluctuating: super low on FB but now recovering.
  • Behaviors change and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen.


Thomas

Mom started using a computer despite her aversion just for Skype when he went to live in Bolivia. Still a loyal user.

People don't know how the current and future cohorts are going to act.

[💎 @38:20] For subscription businesses there is a bigger focus on the payback rather than LTV. You don't know how much you're going to make so you monitor what you're making right now. Example: moving to yearly subscriptions instead of 1 month.

You can try to limit the risk and the gap so there is not too much focus on LTV.


In travel you won't sell anything but some companies like RyanAir can distinct themselves with a better refund policy.


Resources shared about LTV Modeling



The notes from this resource are only available to premium members.
↘ At this point, you know what to do ↙
Upgrade Your Plan

[📢 @06:13] Shout out from Thomas for GrowthGems.co

Context of coronavirus

  • Reaction depends on each company (position, cash in the bank), even within a vertical. You don't want to miss out on an opportunity but it can also be risky.
  • You need to make sure you're relevant and not opportunistic.
  • Opportunities for food delivery and there are also other verticals that can be interesting to explore. Georgy mentioned this article by McKinsey. Shift from offline to online advertisement?


Georgy (Glovo)

  • Almost back to pre-covid numbers but at the same time boost of installs is now decreasing
  • Makes a lot of companies in "startup mode" where they have more uncertainties

Everybody is now a startup


Alexandra (Shpock)

  • Very local and people would usually meet up to exchanging goods
  • Over the last months started to pivot to mobile marketplace where people pay in the app and then there is shipping.
  • Always knew that they needed that but they wouldn't change the model fully and drop the legacy marketplace that they built. But with coronavirus they had to take the decision to tell/force users to transact through the app and not meet.
  • It took 8 days to integrate contact-less delivery through a carrier service. Repurposed some marketing money to co-found the delivery service for users


Thomas

Factors regarding budget to spend. Does it make sense to maintain a small part of the budget for "brand"?  A lot of companies tend to cut long-term (like branding) and not short-term (DR). Advertising your brand at this moment can be risky and perceived the wrong way by customers.

[💎 @26:05] If you're hurt from the crisis, instead of doing brand or DR invest the remaining budget that you have into existing users: what you have, the changes you've made, how they can still use the service. Try to keep your users with re-engagement rather than going after new users.


[💎 @26:48] Everybody is now a startup: extreme uncertainty, low budget, necessity to go very fast. You need to adapt and pivot. Example: Blablacar to Blabla help, events to online, etc.

This means startups are at an advantage vs. other more established companies.


Risks when it comes to LTV modeling

Georgy (Glovo)

  • Don't know what's going to happen so not doing any LTV forecasts.
  • COVID situation changes what a loyal user is: mix of groceries vs. food delivery is changing.
  • Sensibility of delivery time completely change. Timing was really important, and now with groceries users don't really care so for Glovo it doesn't matter if they deliver in 1 hour or 30 minutes. Cancellations and missing items is more important.
  • Satisfaction and NPS increases because of become a "help to survive".
  • Customers are more or less price-sensitive depending on the country.


Alexandra (Shpock)

  • CPMs are fluctuating: super low on FB but now recovering.
  • Behaviors change and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen.


Thomas

Mom started using a computer despite her aversion just for Skype when he went to live in Bolivia. Still a loyal user.

People don't know how the current and future cohorts are going to act.

[💎 @38:20] For subscription businesses there is a bigger focus on the payback rather than LTV. You don't know how much you're going to make so you monitor what you're making right now. Example: moving to yearly subscriptions instead of 1 month.

You can try to limit the risk and the gap so there is not too much focus on LTV.


In travel you won't sell anything but some companies like RyanAir can distinct themselves with a better refund policy.


Resources shared about LTV Modeling



The notes from this resource are only available to premium members.

The detailed notes taken for a resource are an easy way to see the gems in context to get a better understanding. They also include any relevant visuals from the source.
↘ At this point, you know what to do ↙
GET Access

[📢 @06:13] Shout out from Thomas for GrowthGems.co

Context of coronavirus

  • Reaction depends on each company (position, cash in the bank), even within a vertical. You don't want to miss out on an opportunity but it can also be risky.
  • You need to make sure you're relevant and not opportunistic.
  • Opportunities for food delivery and there are also other verticals that can be interesting to explore. Georgy mentioned this article by McKinsey. Shift from offline to online advertisement?


Georgy (Glovo)

  • Almost back to pre-covid numbers but at the same time boost of installs is now decreasing
  • Makes a lot of companies in "startup mode" where they have more uncertainties

Everybody is now a startup


Alexandra (Shpock)

  • Very local and people would usually meet up to exchanging goods
  • Over the last months started to pivot to mobile marketplace where people pay in the app and then there is shipping.
  • Always knew that they needed that but they wouldn't change the model fully and drop the legacy marketplace that they built. But with coronavirus they had to take the decision to tell/force users to transact through the app and not meet.
  • It took 8 days to integrate contact-less delivery through a carrier service. Repurposed some marketing money to co-found the delivery service for users


Thomas

Factors regarding budget to spend. Does it make sense to maintain a small part of the budget for "brand"?  A lot of companies tend to cut long-term (like branding) and not short-term (DR). Advertising your brand at this moment can be risky and perceived the wrong way by customers.

[💎 @26:05] If you're hurt from the crisis, instead of doing brand or DR invest the remaining budget that you have into existing users: what you have, the changes you've made, how they can still use the service. Try to keep your users with re-engagement rather than going after new users.


[💎 @26:48] Everybody is now a startup: extreme uncertainty, low budget, necessity to go very fast. You need to adapt and pivot. Example: Blablacar to Blabla help, events to online, etc.

This means startups are at an advantage vs. other more established companies.


Risks when it comes to LTV modeling

Georgy (Glovo)

  • Don't know what's going to happen so not doing any LTV forecasts.
  • COVID situation changes what a loyal user is: mix of groceries vs. food delivery is changing.
  • Sensibility of delivery time completely change. Timing was really important, and now with groceries users don't really care so for Glovo it doesn't matter if they deliver in 1 hour or 30 minutes. Cancellations and missing items is more important.
  • Satisfaction and NPS increases because of become a "help to survive".
  • Customers are more or less price-sensitive depending on the country.


Alexandra (Shpock)

  • CPMs are fluctuating: super low on FB but now recovering.
  • Behaviors change and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen.


Thomas

Mom started using a computer despite her aversion just for Skype when he went to live in Bolivia. Still a loyal user.

People don't know how the current and future cohorts are going to act.

[💎 @38:20] For subscription businesses there is a bigger focus on the payback rather than LTV. You don't know how much you're going to make so you monitor what you're making right now. Example: moving to yearly subscriptions instead of 1 month.

You can try to limit the risk and the gap so there is not too much focus on LTV.


In travel you won't sell anything but some companies like RyanAir can distinct themselves with a better refund policy.


Resources shared about LTV Modeling