Ivan Kozyev

Always think about how the LTV model will be used. Example: LTV model for the UA team needs to be working with a small sample size so decisions can be made at the campaign level vs. LTV model for strategic decisions needs to be more accurate and can be more thorough.

Predicting LTV is different at different game stages: soft launch, some time after global launch or when the game is at maturity. See characteristics and suggested approach here.

Understanding the impact of LiveOps events on LTV is difficult when only 3 or 4 LiveOps have been done. You can avoid having to wait by looking at peaks during the LiveOps event. "Slice" the LTV curve into smaller periods, define a validation cohort for each slice and calculate the impact on LTV over the period. Then normalize the impact and calculate the final improvement. Example chart here

In soft launch we do not have the whole LTV curve but we somehow need to calculate the lifetime length so product knowledge is crucial because you're extrapolating. You have to know:

• Monetization limits (depth)
• User behavior

The most important step in LTV model development is your LTV model and forecast validation. Always have a validation sample to test the model against, and it also must be representative. Make sure you do not build the model to work especially well against your validation sample (i.e. "overfit").

When evaluating the impact of LiveOps on LTV, do not forget to take into account the novelty effect: peaks tend to be higher during the first LiveOps events.

Some time after global launch you need different LTV models: country groups (Tier 1 vs. Tier 2 vs. Tier 3), acquisition sources and optimization types (Google Ads vs. video networks) and monetization types (in-apps vs. ad-based, or live ops vs. regular purchases).

If you are encountering issues when leveraging machine learning, build a quick model with rough "soft launch techniques" for quick validation. Have a few models using very limited amount of data so you can retrain the machine learning models as soon as possible.

Your special offers are great if you can increase revenue per user while minimizing the discount. The value is in the personalization and showing the right offer (with a relevant content and price) at the right time. Example of special offer delivery system.