Set realistic expectations for experiment win rates at 30-50%, not higher. Win rates vary by funnel maturity - new areas with low-hanging fruit will have higher success rates than mature, optimized parts of the user journey.
"I think it tends to be lower than most people think. Um, I I have generally seen it more kind of like a 30 to 50% type of range. I think it depends a little bit on, like, again, the maturity of, like, the part of the user journey that you're working on. Sometimes it can be a little bit more obvious."
How Chess.com Became the World’s Top Chess App at 34:23 · Featured in Growth Gems #132
Different companies have different comfort level with what they consider a win (e.g., rolling out something flat because you have confidence/intuition it’s the right move).

